Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 177.572303 215.469025 262.470383 326.148102 411.930367 5.261800e+02 6.947048e+02
2025-03-30 133.807573 177.104654 237.762665 332.582968 484.482327 7.334055e+02 1.210540e+03
2025-04-06 111.239387 156.519993 225.813551 346.728546 570.196128 1.011614e+03 2.115876e+03
2025-04-13 92.941075 136.378409 207.097392 340.858768 617.029176 1.254739e+03 3.303295e+03
2025-04-20 85.608256 131.107276 210.101366 373.089045 754.741021 1.821923e+03 6.688433e+03
2025-04-27 79.174138 125.681256 210.981777 401.083168 901.811026 2.602794e+03 1.443891e+04
2025-05-04 73.230622 119.801182 209.313119 422.826011 1049.983329 3.642464e+03 3.410284e+04
2025-05-11 67.513444 113.230847 204.616623 435.740486 1184.705765 4.937861e+03 9.039030e+04
2025-05-18 62.024027 106.157317 197.277034 439.419556 1294.951653 6.447185e+03 2.849154e+05
2025-05-25 56.578735 98.354802 186.791745 431.157536 1357.653890 7.915947e+03 1.094918e+06
2025-06-01 51.634434 90.903479 175.756127 417.970639 1393.594109 9.402801e+03 7.465044e+06
2025-06-08 47.286509 84.148307 165.207017 403.200456 1414.705811 1.096547e+04 6.390743e+08
2025-06-15 46.352671 84.574624 172.154679 447.271894 1784.496151 2.045560e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 43.605369 80.763674 168.057002 454.030864 1971.118366 3.041972e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 41.727871 78.617211 167.798523 474.701477 2286.724710 5.389961e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 38.907385 74.011338 160.267443 465.659452 2388.129070 7.552909e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 38.361114 74.531805 166.674496 514.601177 3064.775662 2.321925e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 37.531991 74.275611 170.899203 557.629532 3840.570476 1.012612e+06 NaN
2025-07-27 36.434109 73.231941 172.654934 591.362269 4664.850936 9.480302e+06 NaN
2025-08-03 35.061968 71.351169 171.555486 611.523429 5427.768669 3.234310e+09 NaN
2025-08-10 33.480800 68.776266 167.869582 617.283657 6032.117664 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 31.655989 65.407876 161.154620 604.357974 6289.268872 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 29.838861 61.904388 153.528958 583.805172 6357.693549 NaN NaN